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06/22/2010 - Loudon, NH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The race to make the championship Chase in the Sprint Cup Series heats up this weekend at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Meanwhile, Danica Patrick makes her return to the Nationwide Series at New Hampshire, and Formula One is in Valencia, Spain for the European Grand Prix.
NASCAR
Sprint Cup Series
Lenox Industrials Tool 301 - New Hampshire Motor Speedway - Loudon, NH
So much for his so-called season slump. Jimmie Johnson's recent downslide came to an end last Sunday at the Infineon Raceway road course in Northern California. The four-time defending Sprint Cup Series champion finally notched his first road course win in 17 attempts.
Johnson began the season by winning three of the first five races, but within the past two months, he had fallen as far back as seventh in points after finishing 31st at Talladega, 36th at Darlington and 37th at Charlotte. Since Charlotte, Johnson has finished no worse than sixth, including a win at Sonoma, which has moved him up to second in the standings.
Denny Hamlin leads the series with five victories so far, while Johnson is next in line with four.
"At the beginning of the year, we were clicking them off," Johnson said. "Right now, Denny has been clicking them off. All that said, it's a long time until September."
The driver with the most wins after the September 11 race at Richmond will enter the championship Chase in the first seed. All 12 drivers who qualify for the playoffs -- the last 10 events of the season -- will have their point totals adjusted to 5,000. Each driver will then have 10 bonus points added for every race he won during the 26-event regular season.
This weekend's Lenox Industrial Tools 301 at New Hampshire kicks off the "Race to the Chase," a 10-race stretch that precedes the Sprint Cup playoffs. So the scramble is on for many drivers to the secure a top-12 spot before the series returns to New Hampshire for the first Chase race on September 19.
Carl Edwards currently holds the coveted 12th position, but NASCAR fan favorite Dale Earnhardt Jr. lurks behind in the 13th spot, as he trails Edwards by 57 points. Earnhardt Jr. has finished seventh and 11th in the last two races.
Edwards dropped two positions in points after a 29th-place run at Sonoma.
"We're trying to just lock ourselves into the Chase," Edwards said. "If we were farther up in points, we wouldn't be thinking about that, but the farther back you are, the more you think about it, and the earlier you think about it."
Heading into New Hampshire, 240 points separate ninth-place Greg Biffle from 20th-place Juan Pablo Montoya.
Biffle has performed well at the flat one-mile track in the past, with a victory here in September 2008. He finished ninth and 18th last year at New Hampshire.
"I think it's a good race track, and we're capable of finishing in the top-10 there or repeating our win from a few years ago," Biffle said. "That definitely could be in the cards."
Kevin Harvick enters New Hampshire with a 140-point lead over Johnson. Harvick has been consistent so far this season, recording 11 top-10 finishes in the first 16 races.
"We're fortunate to be where we are at in the points right now," Harvick said. "We're able to race hard every lap and really not have to worry about what's going on with the points."
Harvick is looking to improve at New Hampshire this time around. He finished 32nd and 34th here last year.
Joey Logano is the defending race winner. One year ago, Logano, in his rookie season, benefited from crew chief Greg Zipadelli's gutsy late-race pit strategy for his first Sprint Cup win in the rain-shortened race at New Hampshire.
Logano, who hails from Middletown, CT, overcame a one-lap deficit after cutting his left-rear tire in the late-stages of the race. He was the only driver who had yet to pit during the final round of green flag stops. Ryan Newman gave up the lead when he ran out of fuel and coasted into in the pits. That allowed Logano to take the top spot for the first time. He then conserved enough fuel before rain fell on the track.
NASCAR displayed the red flag 28 laps short of the 301-lap scheduled distance, with the race being called shortly after. Logano's first win came in his 20th start.
"It's a big deal for me to go back there," Logano said. "It's basically my home racetrack. I grew up a couple of hours away from there, well, about three hours...It was a cool place to get your first win."
Logano is currently 17th in points.
Forty-five teams are on the preliminary entry list for the Lenox Industrial Tools 301.
Nationwide Series
New England 200 - New Hampshire Motor Speedway - Loudon, NH
She's back. After a four-month hiatus, Danica Patrick returns to the Nationwide Series this weekend at New Hampshire.
Of course, Patrick will be the center of attention at New Hampshire, as one of auto racing's most popular and widely marketable drivers is expected to make her fourth career Nationwide start. She is guaranteed a starting position in the 200-lap race since her No.7 JR Motorsports team currently sits 20th in owner points.
"I'm really looking forward to getting back to all the cool people that I've met, my friends and the team; they've been great," Patrick said. "I really like driving the cars. They're a lot of fun, and they are a different challenge than IndyCar, but I think some of things I learned over [in IndyCar], they have helped me over [in NASCAR]."
Patrick has spent the last four months focusing on her full-time IndyCar efforts. After struggling earlier in the IndyCar season, the 28-year-old driver has nicely rebounded with three straight top-10 finishes, including a second-place run earlier this month at Texas. She currently sits 11th in points.
This is an off-week for IndyCar before the series resumes on July 4 at the Watkins Glen, NY road course.
Before her foray into NASCAR, Patrick made her stock car racing debut with an impressive sixth-place finish in the February ARCA event at Daytona. One week later, she competed in the Nationwide season-opener at Daytona. Patrick finished 35th after being caught up in a multi-car pileup mid-way through the event.
At California, Patrick finished the 300-mile race without incident, but fell three laps behind with a 31st-place result. Her most recent Nationwide event came at Las Vegas, where she crashed early and wound up finishing 36th.
With its length at 1.058 miles, New Hampshire will become the shortest track that Patrick will run so far in her early stock car racing career.
No doubt, Patrick will have her hands full at New Hampshire.
"This will be the most sort of dramatic back and forth sort of stuff that I will be dealing with," Patrick said. "At the beginning of the season, it was a little bit more cut and dry. It was more NASCAR than IndyCar. Now, it's definitely going to be back and forth, but I have to say in the times that I have gone back and forth, I don't have any problem with it."
After New Hampshire, Patrick is scheduled to compete in nine more Nationwide races this season, with the next one on July 9 at Chicagoland.
Another big story at New Hampshire will be the possibility of a 24th different winner in as many Nationwide races here.
Last year, Kyle Busch made a late-race pass on his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Joey Logano for the lead, and then held it to become the 23rd different winner at New Hampshire.
Busch, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Jason Keller, Joe Nemechek and Kenny Wallace are those drivers on the 43-team preliminary entry list for the New England 200 that have won at New Hampshire in the past.
Could one of these drivers become the first repeat winner, or could someone like Logano or points leader Brad Keselowski keep the streak alive at New Hampshire?
We'll find out on Saturday.
FORMULA ONE
European Grand Prix - Streets of Valencia - Valencia, Spain
After a thrilling race two weeks ago in Montreal, Canada, Formula One returns to its home continent this weekend with the European Grand Prix on the streets of Valencia, Spain.
The European GP had been scheduled in August the past two years, but was moved to the last weekend in June for this year's F1 calendar.
Lewis Hamilton from McLaren won the Canadian GP and took over the world championship lead. Hamilton, the pole sitter, passed Red Bull's Mark Webber on lap 50 of the 70-lap event in Montreal. He beat his teammate Jenson Button at the finish by just 2.2 seconds for his second victory of the season. Hamilton won last month in Turkey.
"I'm really looking forward to racing in Valencia," Hamilton said. "I had a great attacking race there last year, but I've finished second for the past two seasons, so I feel like I have some unfinished business.
"I also think it's good for the championship to have a variety of circuits. We've just come from a fast, flowing road course in Canada to a tight street track in Valencia. Next month, we'll be at Silverstone [England] - one of the fastest tracks of the year and a circuit with incredible history."
Button overtook Fernando Alonso on the final lap to finish second in the Canadian GP.
Hamilton, the 2008 F1 titleholder, has now accumulated 109 points, compared to 106 for Button, the defending champion, and 103 for Webber.
After running the European GP on the Nurburgring road course in Germany for nine consecutive years, F1 moved the event to Valencia in 2008.
Alonso, in his first year with Ferrari, won the European GP in 2005 and '07, but the Spaniard has finished sixth and 20th in front of his home crowd the past two years.
"Obviously, it's the second home race for me after Barcelona, so I'm hoping to do well there, hoping to be on the podium," Alonso said. "I've never been on the podium in Valencia, so it will be a nice feeling in front of the crowd."
Alonso finished third in the Canadian GP. He kicked off this season by winning in Bahrain and then finished second in Barcelona in early May. Alonso is currently fourth in points (-15).
Rubens Barrichello from Williams is the defending European GP winner. Barrichello won a F1 grand prix for the first time in five years after he benefited from Hamilton's costly pit road mistake.
Hamilton looked as though he was on the way to victory, but he was delayed during his final pit stop when McLaren was not properly prepared for a tire change. Barrichello captured the lead, and then held off Hamilton for the remainder of the event to win since the 2004 Chinese Grand Prix.
"I have great memories of Valencia," said Barrichello, who teamed with Button at Brawn GP last year. "It was my tenth win, so it was great fun."
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Danica-mania returns to Nationwide at New Hampshire >>
Loudon, NH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Saturday, June
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Oddsmakers have released the odds for the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award and Seattle Seahawks linebacker Aaron Curry has been made the opening favorite.
Seattle took Curry with the fourth overall pick in April's NFL draft and plan on inserting him into its starting lineup right away. The Hawks traded linebacker Julian Peterson in the offseason, so Curry is expected to have a significant role in Seattle's defense next year and that's one of the primary reasons he is the favorite to win the NFL ROY Award.
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook MySportsbook.com have made Curry a 5/1 favorite to win this year's NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. Given that he was the best defensive prospect in this year's draft and how he'll have plenty of opportunities to make plays in '09, Curry offers a ton of value at 5/1.
Another thing working for Curry is the position he plays. A linebacker has won the defensive ROY award six straight times and eight of the last nine years. Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, DeMeco Ryans, Shawne Merriman, Jonathan Vilma, Terrell Suggs, Kendrell Bell and Brian Urlacher were the most recent linebackers to take home the award.
Following Curry at 5/1 are Tyson Jackson (Chiefs) at 7/1, James Laurinaitas (Rams) at 8/1, Brian Orakpo (Redskins) at 10/1, Rey Maualuga (Bengals) at 10/1 and Jerry Peria (Falcons) at 10/1.
All the players mentioned above are expected to start for their respective teams, but Jackson and Peria are going to have a tough time being recognized on a national level given they're both defensive linemen. D-linemen rarely put up the numbers that it takes to win an individual award like the ROY.
A couple of players with some value are Clay Matthews (Packers) at 12/1 and Larry English (Chargers) at 15/1. Matthews is expected to start at outside linebacker in Green Bay's new 3-4 defense and could rack up a ton of tackles. English, who was an impressive player at Northern Illinois, is expected to be a situational pass rusher for the Chargers and could rack up a ton of sacks.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, see below. And for complete odds for the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, click the link provided.
2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award
Robert Ayers (DEN) 12/1
Ron Brace (NE) 25/1
Everette Brown (CAR) 16/1
Darius Butler (NE) 40/1
Patrick Chung (NE) 30/1
Aaron Curry (SEA) 5/1
Brian Cushing (HOU) 12/1
Vontae Davis (MIA) 30/1
Louis Delmas (DET) 30/1
Larry English (SD) 15/1
Evander Hood (PIT) 25/1
Tyson Jackson (KC) 7/1
Malcolm Jenkins (NO) 25/1
Paul Kruger (BAL) 50/1
James Laurinaitas (STL) 8/1
Sen'Derrick Marks (TEN) 20/1
Clay Matthews (GB) 12/1
Aaron Maybin (BUF) 15/1
Rey Maualuga (CIN) 10/1
Roy Miller (TB) 20/1
Michael Mitchell (OAK) 45/1
Fili Moala (IND) 30/1
Brian Orakpo (WAS) 10/1
Jerry Peria (ATL) 10/1
B J Raji (GB) 7/1
Clint Sintim (NYG) 35/1
Alphonso Smith (DEN) 40/1
David Verkune (CLE) 20/1
Jason Williams (DAL) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 6/1
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