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03/11/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Once the top-ranked Australian in the world, Stuart Appleby has plummeted in the world rankings as his winless streak stretches into its fourth season.
Appleby owns eight PGA Tour titles, including three straight wins at the winners-only Mercedes Championships, now known as the SBS Championship. The Australian ended his run of three straight wins at that event in 2006, and later that season won the Houston Open. Since then, nothing, at least in terms of wins.
Appleby had a decent 2007 with four top-10 finishes worldwide, and two top-12 finishes in the four majors. The following season, he was off to a blazing start. After missing the cut in his first start of the '08 season, Appleby reeled off six consecutive top-10s, five of which came on the PGA Tour. But following that hot start, he posted just two more top-10s the rest of 2008.
Despite making the cut in all four majors and tying for second at the WGC- Bridgestone Invitational, he was unable to break back into the winners circle.
Last year, Appleby had five times as many missed cuts (10) as top-10 finishes, (two). Two of his missed cuts were at the U.S. Open and the PGA Championship.
Things have not gotten any better this season. Appleby has started in seven PGA Tour events and made the cut just twice. Neither time did he finish in the top 60.
He will be absent from the WGC event this week, making it three in a row that he has missed after playing in 32 straight WGC events.
With all of his struggles, Appleby has plummeted to No. 151 in the world. Not only that, but there are now 13 fellow Australians ranked ahead of Appleby in the current world rankings. His star has fallen so much that he needed to use a one-time exemption to keep his PGA Tour card this season. The exemption he used stems from him being ranked in the Top 25 on the PGA Tour's career money list.
Last year was the first time since his rookie year that he finished outside the top 125 on the money list, which is the cutoff point to keep your tour card for the next season.
Appleby's poor form also cost him a spot on the International Presidents Cup team last year, after he had played the previous five teams.
His driving distance this year has fallen more than 18 yards from his peak of 300.6 yards in 2005, and his greens in regulation stats have fallen below 60- percent for the first time since he joined the PGA Tour.
Those two stats do not tell the entire story, but hitting the ball shorter and hitting fewer greens is a recipe for higher scores and poor results.
What makes his fall from grace unusual is that there is no injury to blame. Appleby has just has just lost his game. He went so far as to joke about it on his Twitter page.
After he made the cut last week at the Honda Classic, Appleby posted this on his Twitter account, "Made the cut...Stop the press."
LOOK OUT FOR THE MOLINARI BROTHERS
Francesco and Edoardo Molinari continue to set firsts on the PGA Tour, and in the golf world in general. This week, they were ranked back-to-back in the official world golf rankings.
Edoardo, the younger of the two and the 2005 U.S. Amateur champion, was ranked 47th, less than one average point ahead of Francesco.
The world golf rankings started in 1987, so it is difficult to say they are the highest-rated brothers ever. One thing is for sure, they will be the first brother combination to play at the Masters since Jumbo and Joe Ozaki in 2000.
It will be the second trip to Augusta for Edoardo, whose U.S. Amateur victory gained him a spot in the 2006 Masters field. Francesco caddied for his brother that week, when the younger Molinari played alongside defending champion Tiger Woods for the first two rounds.
In the past few months, they have established a pair of familial firsts. In November, they became the first brothers to win the Omega Mission Hills World Cup, and in February were the first brothers to qualify for a World Golf Championship event when they both competed at the Accenture Match Play Championship.
Francesco has won once on the European Tour, while Edoardo was victorious twice last season on the European Challenge Tour. However, Edoardo is off to a better start this year with a pair of fourth-place finishes.
Including the three Ozaki brothers - who combined for over 140 wins on the Japan Golf Tour - there have been other previous outstanding brother combinations in golf. Dave and Mike Hill posted over 51 professional wins, and Lanny and Bobby Wadkins had over 20 professional wins, including Lanny's victory at the 1977 PGA Championship.
Francesco and Edoardo have plenty of time to catch these "other brothers," as they are just 27 and 29 years old, respectively.
MINI-TIDBITS
- Ryo Ishikawa was one of two players ranked in the top 50 in the world to miss last week's WGC - CA Championship. His excuse? He was at his high school graduation.
- Steve Pate, a six-time winner on the PGA Tour and two-time Ryder Cupper, became the oldest winner on the Nationwide Tour when he won the Bogota Open last week. Pate will turn 49 on May 26.
<< Report: Roberts out at St. John's
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Norm Roberts is reportedly out as head coach
at St. John's after six seasons with the Red Storm.
The New York Post cited sources within the university as saying Roberts won't
be back for the 2010-11 season.
<< Thrashers try to end slide in Columbus
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Thrashers will be out to halt a poorly-timed
three-game losing streak in tonight's matchup with the Columbus Blue Jackets
from Nationwide Arena.
Atlanta had put itself in the Eastern Conference playoff mix with
<< Surging Irish set sights on Panthers in tournament play
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After a surprising regular-season showing, the
16th-ranked and second-seeded Pittsburgh Panthers now begin their run in the
Big East Tournament tonight against the seventh-seeded Notre Dame Fighting
Irish in the
<< Wildcats and Golden Eagles square off in Big East Tourney
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams that have a history of playing close
games meet in the quarterfinal round of the Big East Tournament today, as the
fifth-seeded Marquette Golden Eagles battle the fourth-seeded and 10th-ranked
Villanova
Lightning hope to get on track versus Maple Leafs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Lightning will aim for just their second win
in eight games when they visit the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight at Air Canada
Centre.
The Lightning are only five points out of a playoff berth in the Eastern
Conf
Hawks hope to snap funk in DC >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Hawks hope to avoid a third straight loss when
they wrap up a three-game road trip Thursday night against the Southeast
Division-rival Washington Wizards at the Verizon Center.
Atlanta is winless so far
Blues visit Islanders at Nassau Coliseum >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Blues will try to get back on track tonight
when they visit the New York Islanders for an interconference clash at Nassau
Coliseum.
The Blues pushed their winning streak to a season-high five games by posting
Surging Flyers host Bruins in Winter Classic rematch >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers will try to continue their surge in
the right direction when they host the Boston Bruins tonight at Wachovia
Center.
The Flyers are 7-1-1 in their last nine games and have greatly improved their
pl
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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