Can anyone knock off Big Brown?

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/13/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Horseracing Betting) - The last three Kentucky Derby winners had similar results in the Preakness, but the manner in which they all lost was very different.

Street Sense ended up getting nailed at the wire by Curlin after defeating the eventual three-year-old of the year by eight lengths in the Derby. Barbaro's loss needs no explanation, although one could make the argument that even if he hadn't broken down, Bernardini still would have won the race. Giacomo won the 2005 Derby at 50-1, but showed his true colors finishing third, beaten 9 3/4-lengths by Afleet Alex.

To find a Derby winner who prevailed at Pimlico, one has to go back to '04, when Smarty Jones scored an emphatic win in the middle leg of the Triple Crown. Will the Derby-Preakness double be hit again any time soon? Well, if any horse can end the drought, it's Big Brown.

The undefeated star walloped an overmatched field in the Kentucky Derby to win by 4 3/4 lengths, while racing wide the entire trip after breaking from post 20. By doing so, he doused a couple of longstanding Derby trends by becoming the first horse since Regret in 1915 to win in his fourth career start, and the second to ever reach the wire first from post 20.

How dominating was Big Brown's victory? For the first time in 60 years, the Kentucky Derby winner will go postward in the Preakness without a single challenge from any of the defeated horses from two weeks earlier. Recapturetheglory was a possibility, but after running a fever over the weekend, his connections did the right thing by declaring him out for Saturday. (The connections for Gayego have added the 17th-place Derby finisher as a possibility, but it has not been confirmed as of Tuesday morning.)

Big Brown's task became decidedly easier Monday afternoon, when it was announced Harlem Rocker would skip the race to await the Queen's Plate in late June. The undefeated colt by Macho Uno would have presented a huge challenge, but now it's almost a foregone conclusion that the Derby winner will head to New York with the Triple Crown well within his reach.

The Preakness may be a walkover, but the Belmont Stakes is another story. Looming there is another unbeaten star-in-the-making ready to do damage, and his name is Casino Drive. Not only did he win his first career start in Japan by over 11 lengths, the Kentucky-bred came to the United States off a 77-day layoff and rolled to an easy 5 3/4-length score in the Peter Pan at Belmont Park.

After breaking slowly, Kent Desormeaux settled him a few lengths behind the Mint Lane throughout most of the race and stormed past the pacesetter like he was standing still at the top of the stretch.

The son of Mineshaft finished the 1 1/8 in 1:47 4/5, running his final three furlongs in 37 flat. He obviously is bred to run all day since his dam has produced the last two Belmont Stakes winners in Rags to Riches and Jazil. Mint Lane proved just how dangerous speed can be by holding onto the second spot at a very generous 18-1, setting up a $66.50 exacta.

Regardless of Casino Drive's presence in the third leg of racing's Triple Crown, let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Preakness is this Saturday and Big Brown is looking like a 1-5 favorite with the defection of Harlem Rocker.

There have been three odds-on horses to run in the Preakness this decade, and only one has brought his connections the Woodlawn Vase. Barbaro failed to finish the race after his horrific injury as the 1-2 choice in 2006. Fusiachi Pegasus was 1-5 after cruising in the Run for the Roses back in 2000, but Red Bullet got the best of him in Baltimore after running second to him in the Wood Memorial.

The only horse to come through for the public was Smarty Jones at odds of 7-10. Will Big Brown join him, or will he become the third horse since 2000 to fail at odds lower than even money? The only way to tell is to examine the rest of the field.

THE OTHER ELEVEN

In winning the Derby, Big Brown knocked off 19 other horses that had combined to win 23 graded stakes races. To cross the wire first in the Preakness, he'll have to defeat 10 colts and one gelding that have brought home a grand total of two graded stakes victories.

Behindatthebar is one of the three horses to garner a graded stakes win. The son of Forest Wildcat roared home to win the Lexington by one length over Samba Rooster, who then finished third to El Gato Malo in the recently run Lone Star Derby. Behindatthebar was 10 lengths off the pace after three- quarters in 1:09 2/5, and ran his final 2 1/16 miles in 30 3/5, which was extremely quick considering closers had a rough go of it for much of the day at Keeneland. Prior to the Lexington, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt blew away allowance horses to win by four at Santa Anita.

It appears to the naked eye that Behindatthebar would need a very fast pace to win the Preakness, but that is not the case. In his Santa Anita victory, he ran a similar 48 first half as he did in the Lexington (when he was 14 lengths off the pace) and was only four lengths from the lead. He came home that afternoon in the same 30 3/5 as in the "Lex," and a finish like that could have him close to the lead at the wire.

Behindatthebar's lone poor effort (a fifth-place finish) came in his only dirt race: the El Camino Real at Bay Meadows. Nonetheless, he was wide for much of the race, and a laboring Coast Guard impeded his initial stretch drive. It would be unfair at this stage of his career to label him a horse unable to win on dirt, and therefore, he is worthy of being the second choice in the wagering.

Giant Moon ran a game fourth in the Wood Memorial, only losing by two lengths to Tale of Ekati, who ended up a credible fourth in the Kentucky Derby. In addition, Tale of Ekati hindered Giant Moon's progress throughout the entire final furlong, bearing in on the New York State-bred through the lane.

The son of Giant's Causeway, who will be one of the pacesetters along with Tres Borrachos, has run only one poor race in his career and that came in the slop at Aqueduct in the Gotham. Otherwise, he's four for five, including the loss in the Wood.

His breeding suggests he should like the distance, but the pace of the race may not be in his favor. Even if he holds off the challenge of Tres Borrachos, it's doubtful he'll fend off Big Brown, and having to fight tooth and nail on the engine will leave Giant Moon gasping for breath at the top of the lane. Once the closers mount their charges, he could easily fall to the back of the pack.

Hey Byrn had no excuse in the Florida Derby, where he finished a well-beaten fourth to Big Brown. He couldn't even hold off the late charge of Tomcito, who has proven to be a non-factor after two pitiful performances in the Lexington and the Peter Pan.

Still, some folks might look at his past performances and see three wins in his last four starts and think he's got a decent shot for second. Think again. Two of those triumphs came in allowance conditions, and in his only stakes score, he was put to the test for nine of the 9 1/2 furlongs by two horses recently coming off maiden victories.

Icabad Crane is heading into the Preakness off an impressive half-length victory over Mint Lane in the Federico Tesio, over the very same Pimlico surface he'll be racing over this Saturday. Mint Lane made "Crane's" win in the Tesio look even better after finishing second to Casino Drive in the Peter Pan.

The son of Jump Start is undefeated on dirt as his lone defeat came two races back on Polytrack in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. He had no excuse that day, as he was beaten over three lengths by the likes of Big Glen and Miner's Claim, who were up the track as huge longshots in the Lexington and Blue Grass, respectively.

Twice in the last 13 years, a Maryland-based horse has finished second in the Preakness (Magic Weisner and Oliver's Twist), so Icabad Crane is a horse that might deserve a second look come post time.

Kentucky Bear opened his career with a smashing 6 1/2-length rout at a one- mile event at Gulfstream Park back in January, earning a 93 Beyer. Reade Baker thought so highly of the win he sent him to the Fountain of Youth in just his second start, and the public made him a close third choice to Monba and Court Vision.

A perfect two-for-two record was not to be, as Kentucky Bear was outclassed by his rivals, finishing a distant seventh. He made amends in his next race, a third-place finish in the Blue Grass at 27-1, but he was running very erratically down the stretch, and that is certainly not going to help him on dirt at 1 3/16. In addition, the first two finishers in the Blue Grass did not flatten his race at all by running 20th and ninth, respectively, in the Kentucky Derby.

Macho Again defeated a bunch of sprinters in the 7 1/2-furlong Derby Trial at Churchill Downs in his last start and has not won a race at one mile or longer in his career. In fact, his only attempt at nine furlongs resulted in a seventh-place finish, beaten over a dozen lengths in the Lane's End back in March.

One could argue that he doesn't like Polytrack since he ran seventh at Keeneland last October, but how can anyone seriously excuse his inept performance in the LeComte over the dirt at Fair Grounds?

Racecar Rhapsody is a fourth-place machine. The son of Tale of a Cat has finished in that spot three consecutive times. Trainer Kenneth McPeek would prefer a win or even an on-the-board finish once in a while, but earning a check in four straight graded races is still quite an accomplishment.

His fourth in the Lane's End was impressive considering it was his first start in over three months. He still showed his patented closing kick running his third quarter in 24 3/5, but had nothing left through the stretch. Not a single horse ran faster during the final 2.5 furlongs in his next start - the Lexington - as he came home in 30 1/5.

The problem with Racecar Rhapsody is his inept positioning at the beginning of almost all his starts. In his last three events, he has been ahead of only two of 28 other horses. He does, however, come home with a powerful stride and could very well fill out the bottom of the trifecta or superfecta on Saturday given a fast pace up front.

Riley Tucker rarely has an off day as he has hit the board in six of his seven races. On the other hand, he's eligible for a "non-winners of one allowance," as he's won just once in his life. In fact, he's one of five horses in the race that sport only a maiden win on their resume.

The Bill Mott-trained colt did finish third to Behindatthebar in the Lexington, but should have fared better since he was able to sit five lengths off the maniacal pace set by Samba Rooster. The fact that he couldn't even pass the "Rooster" shows he's a notch below these.

Stevril comes into the Preakness after running a credible fourth in the Blue Grass at 68-1. Prior to that effort, he ran fifth in the Louisiana Derby at odds of 95-1. However, the son of Maria's Mon hasn't won a race since his debut back on October 13, 2007, and he's a notch below the likes of Kentucky Bear and Yankee Bravo, which means a fifth-place finish at best.

Tres Borrachos could be on the lead as the field hits the far turn. That was the scenario in the Arkansas Derby until Gayego attained the top spot around the turn. The gelding did fight back for third overtaking Indian Sun, but that one has hung through the lane in every single stakes race he's been in.

In his prior race, Tres Borrachos fought for the lead through a 47 first half- mile in the El Camino Real and faltered in the final 1/8th of a mile to finish third. Before that, he ran third while racing four-wide the entire length of the California Derby.

If Tres Borrachos couldn't hold off Gayego and run second, it's highly unlikely he'll be able to withstand the challenge of Big Brown and have enough steam to hit the board.

Yankee Bravo came from out of the clouds to win that California Derby three starts back, running his final 2.5 furlongs in a powerful 29 3/5. That was his first start on synthetics after a pair of turf wins in Europe and Santa Anita, but in order to keep on improving he would have to learn how to break from the starting gate as he was left in all three of his races.

His next appearance after the Cal Derby came on dirt in the Louisiana Derby. He did break a little better, but couldn't come anywhere close to Pyro, finishing 3 1/2 lengths behind the winner. If he had come home in the 29 3/5 he displayed in his previous race, he might have finished first, but this time, he ran his last 2.5 furlongs in 30 2/5 and had to settle for third.

The Santa Anita Derby was next in his return to synthetics. His eventual fourth-place finish wasn't enough to gain a spot in the Kentucky Derby, but it was impressive nonetheless.

Not only did he break cleanly for the second straight race, he was much closer to the pace than usual, sitting less than five lengths off the lead through a first half-mile of 47 2/5. Unfortunately, his huge run, which began from around the turn, was stifled when Bob Black Jack bore in on him through the stretch. All in all, a very good performance, one that should have him fit for the Preakness.

OVERVIEW

Based on the above glimpses at the rest of the field, it's fairly easy to say that Big Brown should be only one race away from winning the Triple Crown. However, until word comes out from the Gayego camp, one can't be too sure.

Even though he finished 17th in the Derby, not much was expected from the Arkansas Derby winner as he was sent off at 18-1 from post 19, and once the race unfolded, there was no way in the world he was going to be a factor.

The son of Gilded Time broke poorly. and then jockey Mike Smith had to pull him back while racing in traffic as the horses stampeded past the stands the first time. In addition, there were plenty of rumors on the backstretch at Churchill Downs prior to the race that he had not been feeling 100% in the days leading up to the Derby.

If entered, Gayego would not only be the second choice in the wagering, he would assure a faster pace as his best races have come battling for the early lead. The racing world will know by Tuesday evening if he will indeed come to Baltimore to give Big Brown a run for his money.

Stay tuned on Friday, when the final Preakness analysis will come your way, along with official selections and predicted odds.